Poker predictions sure to go wrong for 2013 Part 1

Posted by Steve Ruddock on Dec 27, 2012 Posted in Op-Ed | No Comments »

crystal ballLast year I made some very bold predictions, and all-in-all I have to say I did pretty well. However, we are all poker players here, and we all know this could easily just be a case of the Jason Mercier “run-good”, so with that in mind, I’m back for 2013 with a whole new set of predictions… Sure to go wrong. Before I unveil my latest prognostications let’s take a look at last year’s prediction, and see exactly how accurate I was.

Prediction #1: 2012 will finally be the Year of the Woman

With such an obtuse prediction (I mean, what makes something the “Year of the Woman”), let me give you a quick summary of the prediction I made: “A woman will not only win an open WSOP tournament, but will also break through on the World Poker Tour, and (yes another AND) will make the final table of the WSOP Main Event.”

Well, the first part of the prediction came true, and I couldn’t have been any closer on parts two and three as we had women finish 10th and 11th in the WSOP Main Event –so technically there was a woman at the final table) and we had a couple of 2nd place finishes in WPT events.

Prediction #2: Attendance will be down across the board at major poker tournaments

Alright, this was obviously the “layup” of my predictions, but boy did this ever come true! The numbers may not look as bad as they really are thanks to the creative measures tournaments have taken like reentries and super late registration, but numbers have been plummeting for a few years now, and 2012 was one of the worst.

It’s easy to point to Black Friday as the cause, but Black Friday wasn’t the initial cause of the attendance declines, but April 15, 2011 seems to have been the final nail in the coffin so to speak. The next question to be answered is whether the attendance drops have hit bottom, or if tournaments will see a further decline.

Prediction #3: Two more players will win the Triple Crown in 2012

I thought this one would be another “layup” but lo and behold, in 2012 only David Kitai joined the ranks of the Triple Crown winners in poker: Gavin Griffin, Roland de Wolfe, Bertrand Grospellier, and Jake Cody. 2013 should see several players added to the ranks of Triple Crown winners, which leads to the follow-up question of: With more and more players in the “exclusive” club, how long will the Triple Crown matter?

Prediction #4: There will be a major online poker scandal in 2012

This one I definitely whiffed as I called the scandal that would occur on par with the Super-User or Full Tilt Poker scandal, and obviously that didn’t happen –Thankfully.

Prediction #5: Players will still be waiting for their Full Tilt money at the end of 2012

As much as I hate being right on this one, I have to say I’m not surprised that we are approaching 2013 and US players still have no idea when they may be eligible to file a remission to get their Full Tilt Poker funds back from the DOJ.

In Part 2 of this series I’ll bring you my predictions for 2013.

 

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