Update on our 2012 poker predictions

Posted by Steve Ruddock on Feb 12, 2012 Posted in Op-Ed, PNB News | No Comments »

Back at the beginning of the year I made five somewhat bold predictions regarding the state of poker and what I expected to unfold in the world of poker during 2012. So, I figure, now is as good a time as any to check in on my predictions for the poker world in 2012, considering we are just over a month into 2012.

Prediction #1 – 2012 will finally be the Year of the Woman

No big wins, but Xuan Liu did threaten at the PCA Main Event. Fortunately most of this bold prediction will hinge on the WSOP where I picked a female bracelet winner in an open event AND a female at the final table of the WSOP Main Event.

Thus far the jury is still out on this prediction, and like I said we really won’t know until the WSOP is concluded.

Prediction #2 – Attendance will be down across the board at major poker tournaments

Thus far only the Aussie Millions has come near its 2011 attendance numbers when it comes to major tournaments, and the EPT Deauville basically saw an equal number of entrants. On the other hand, attendance has been down at WPT tournaments and most significantly at the PokerStars Caribbean Adventure (PCA), where attendance fell some 30%.

There were also sizable drops in the Super-High-Roller events at both the PCA and Aussie Millions.

So far so good on this prediction.

Prediction #3 – Two more players will win the Triple Crown in 2012

With only a few WPT and EPT events in the books at this point there haven’t been any new additions to the very exclusive club in 2012. Although the real moment of truth for this prediction will be at the 2012 WSOP during the summer, when a full 61 bracelet events are scheduled to take place.

With so many players having completed two legs of the Triple Crown (as well as the attendance numbers down at many tournaments) I still feel this is a lock.

Prediction #4 – There will be a major online poker scandal in 2012

Nothing as of yet on this front, although there was the revelation of some 19 poker pros owing Full Tilt poker somewhere between $15 million and $20 million! So the year is still young! Granted this prediction was based more on a feeling than any particular evidence.

Prediction #5 – Players will still be waiting for their Full Tilt money at the end of 2012

We’re almost halfway into February and there is still no sign of a deal between Full Tilt Poker and Groupe Bernard Tapie, and considering the Department of Justice will be handling the US cash-outs, even if a deal does get done it will likely be months before a cash-out is processed.

In fact, it now appears that a possible deal is slipping away, as GBT has gone public regarding some player debts –some of which have been confirmed, while others vehemently denied.

As of now, the jury is still out on this prediction, but it’s looking better than 50/50 at the moment.

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